The spring strategy meetings held by brokerage firms have kicked off, and already institutions like Huafu Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities have convened to discuss their approaches for the upcoming monthsNumerous other brokerages are also sharing their spring strategiesOverall, many institutions express an optimistic view about 2025, anticipating a continuation of positive policy measures aimed at balancing the supply-demand dynamic in the economy and improving corporate profit growthAs the economy undergoes structural adjustments and transformations, a notable focus has emerged on the "transitional bull market," driven by technological innovation and high-quality economic developmentInvestment opportunities in the tech and consumer sectors, particularly in computational power and artificial intelligence (AI) applications, are generating significant interest among institutional investors.

Many brokerages are emphasizing that there will likely be more aggressive fiscal policies and moderately relaxed monetary policies in place to reinforce counter-cyclical adjustmentsThis, in turn, would support a recovery in domestic demand and encourage consumer spendingConcurrently, industry policies are becoming increasingly centered on technological innovation, fostering a new type of productive capacity.

During a recent spring strategy conference, He Ning, the chief macroeconomic analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, highlighted that the 2025 global economic recovery will present a mixed pictureHe stressed that the Chinese macroeconomic policy will play a central role, stating that the resilience of the economy awaits the implementation of more aggressive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policiesHe pointed out that recent central economic work meetings had suggested timely interest rate cuts and an increase in the deficit ratio, indicating a shift toward a broader monetary and fiscal strategy.

Guotai Junan's macroeconomic co-chief analyst, Huang Runan, articulated three main investment themes for 2025 from a macro perspective: the new AI tech race, China’s internal and external rebalancing, and hedging against uncertainties

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According to him, the competition in AI technology will not be a zero-sum gameHistorical experiences from previous instances of de-globalization emphasize that key technology races predominantly occur between the two largest economiesFurthermore, if the trends within industries remain unclear and significant strategic maneuverings between major powers are still ambiguous, gold stands to benefit greatly as a hedge against uncertainties.

According to Haitong Securities, the recent emergence of DeepSeek represents a transformative moment in the AI landscape, signaling China's robust momentum in technological innovation—an advancement made possible through supportive policiesThe recent roundtable discussions with private enterprises reflect the decision-makers' significant appreciation for technological advancementsCoupled with insights from last year’s central economic work conference and local sessions this year, there is an expectation that future industrial policies will continue to concentrate on fostering technological innovation and nurturing a new quality of productive forcesThe Chinese macroeconomic environment seems poised to cultivate tech giants, while the stock market's systemic framework creates favorable conditions for tech investments.

"Currently, the AI market is hitting extremes, but there are still new options available in the macro landscape," noted Guolian MinshengThey identified two diverging paths within market-oriented enterprises: one path involves increased investments and moving towards new industrial developments; the other emphasizes improving income distribution, where capital transfers profit to labor, ultimately bolstering consumptionThis suggests a nurturing of endogenous momentum within the Chinese economy.

In the context of a continuously uplifting macroeconomic backdrop, firms express a more favorable outlook for equity marketsIndustry insiders believe that the revaluation of leading tech companies and a rising industrial trend will support ongoing valuation recovery in the A-shares market

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Furthermore, a growth-oriented investment style might serve as a key factor in driving structural market trends.

Guotai Junan's chief strategist, Fang Yi, mentioned that the conditions for a "transitional bull market" in Chinese equities are coming together after prolonged adjustmentsDwindling negative expectations and a clearing of micro-structures could be prerequisites for the resilience of market valuationsIn overcoming debt, enhancing demand, and stabilizing asset prices, new "three arrows" policies are taking shape to promote economic development along expectations that align with market desires.

Kaiyuan Securities' chief strategy analyst, Wei Jixing, indicated that three critical dimensions regarding domestic factors will emerge in 2025: moving from low inflation to moderate inflation; transitioning from low economic expectations to overshooting economic performance; and evolving from extreme styles to diversified stylesHe advocates for reinforcing policy confidence, with a fiscal focus on "expanding domestic demand" and monetary emphasis on "broad credit" rather than simply "broad currency." Wei foresees that the primary market-driving forces will shift from policy battles to fundamental drivers, recommending an exploration of fundamental discrepancies across four dimensions: AI empowerment, relief under debt management, cost-driven improvements, and performance that exceeds expectations.

"Given the confluence of factors like restored fundamental expectations, policy-induced confidence in the capital market, and reevaluation of tech leaders, the current market remains in an upward trajectory," stated Zhongyin SecuritiesThey project that the growth style is at a pivotal starting point poised for dominance over the next three years, emphasizing that in 2025, growth factors could become key elements of structural market trends.

Focusing on specific investment areas, institutions are increasingly fixating on the realization of industrial logic within the technology sector, including AI applications and computational power

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